Copper prices fell by 0.61%, settling at ₹809.45 today, as profit booking followed recent gains spurred by hopes of a potential stimulus from China and a significant U.S. interest rate cut.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary easing, with a half-percentage point rate reduction, has bolstered expectations of improved global demand, which previously supported copper prices.

Despite the dip, earlier optimism in the market was drive by declining copper inventories. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported an 11.1% drop in copper stocks, indicating tighter supply conditions.

However, concerns over an oversupply in the global market persist, as the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a surplus of 95,000 metric tons in June, a significant increase from 63,000 metric tons in May.

On the supply front, China’s refined copper exports saw a 56% month-on-month decline in August. Though they remained 50% higher than the same period last year. Meanwhile, China’s copper production increased modestly by 0.9% year-on-year to 1.12 million metric tons in August.

However, unwrought copper imports fell to a 16-month low, signaling weaker domestic demand. While copper concentrate imports rose by 3.2% in the first eight months of 2024.

Today copper price trends suggest a technically bearish market, with long liquidation bringing open interest down by 13.8%, settling at 5,197 contracts. Support is anticipated at ₹805.2, with a possible downside to ₹801, while resistance is seen at ₹816.5.

A breakout above this resistance could drive prices toward ₹823.6. As the market remains highly sensitive to global demand shifts and supply conditions, traders are closely monitoring economic developments.

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