Russia’s shipments of refined petroleum (Oil) products reached their highest level in 8 months in the 4 weeks leading up to December 31 due to a spike in fuel oil exports.
The data shows that during the four weeks leading up to December 31. Russian oil products exports averaged close to 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 6% over the four-week average for the week ending on December 24.
The four-week average of Russian fuel exports to December 24 was approximately 2.6 million barrels per day. Up approximately 157,000 barrels from the average to December 17. This is the highest level of exports from Russia in over 7 months.
December saw an average of 1.17 million barrels of petrol oil and diesel exported from Russia. Which is the highest monthly export level of 2023.
“Moscow made this possible by relaxing restrictions on the export of diesel. And recovering loadings from Black Sea ports following some delays caused by storms in November.”
Export Restrictions and Embargoes Impacting Russia:
Russia imposed a temporary embargo on diesel shipments in late September and early October. And prohibited the export of petrol for almost two months, from late September to mid-November.
Russia’s need to stabilise domestic fuel prices in the face of skyrocketing crude prices and a declining ruble served as the driving force behind the bans.
Forecasts of Russian oil supply and Moscow’s adherence to its promised export cuts are further complicated by the most recent spike in fuel exports and the ongoing strong observed crude oil shipments.
Russia promised to cut its exports of oil by 300,000 barrels per day by the end of 2023.
Russia announced that it would expand the export reduce to 500,000 bpd in the 1st quarter of 2024 at the most recent OPEC+ meeting. Which took place at the end of November.
The reference export levels for the cut would be May and June 2023.
“200,000 bpd of refined products and 300,000 bpd of crude exports will make up this quarter’s cut.”