Tuesday’s modest increase in gold prices in Asian trade helped the metal recover from a challenging start to the year as investors revised their expectations for an early reduction in Federal Reserve interest rates ahead of this week’s crucial U.S. inflation data.
Over the previous week, the yellow metal plunged precipitously below the $2,050 per ounce mark, tracking a rise in the dollar as robust labour market data stoked doubts about the degree of pressure on the Fed to start easing policy sooner rather than later.
However, this week’s decline in the dollar from three-week highs due to some profit-taking helped gold prices somewhat. The yellow metal was still far below its December highs, though.
Current State of Gold Futures and Spot Prices
By 00:07 ET (05:07 GMT), gold futures expiring in February increased by 0.3% to $2,038.85 an ounce. While spot gold increased by 0.2% to $2,032.91 an ounce.
Ahead of important consumer price index statistics that is due this Thursday, traders continued to be strongly biassed in favour of the dollar. Together with the positive nonfarm payrolls number, the reading is anticipat to indicate a slight increase in inflation in December. Giving the Fed greater leeway to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period of time.
This led to a reduction in anticipation of early interest rate reduces. Which caused gold to recoup some of its December gains. Even so, by the end of 2023, the yellow metal had gained 10%.
Additionally, Federal Reserve officials tempered expectations for early rate reductions. Ralph Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed, stated that he was still inclined to maintain tight policy in the near future because inflation was still significantly higher than the Fed’s 2% annual target.
Bostic noted only roughly 50 bps of reductions, which is far less than what the markets are anticipating. Even though he still believes that rates will eventually decline in 2024.
Also, traders were observed gradually reducing their wagers that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates as early as March. Trader pricing in a 59.4% chance of a March cut is now evident on the CME Fedwatch tool. Down from 70.7 percent a week ago and 64% on Monday.
Higher rates for longer periods of time are not good news for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding the yield-free yellow metal.
Market Anticipation Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data
Tuesday’s minimal movement in industrial metal prices was caused by the pressure of a strong dollar. Additionally, traders were cautious of the red metal due to the impending release of important economic data from China, the country’s top importer.
March-ending copper futures increased 0.2% to $3.8288 per pound. In the first week of 2024, they had decreased by more than 2%.
This week’s highlights include Chinese inflation or trade data for December. Which are anticipat on Friday, in addition to the U.S. data. It is anticipated that the largest copper importer in the world continued to experience disinflation in December and that trade activity, especially exports, decreased.
However, through much of 2023, China’s imports of copper remained surprisingly resilient, despite the country’s general economic weakness. Data is anticipat on Friday that will indicate whether this trend continued in December.