As of the latest trading session, copper prices in India have declined by 1%, settling at ₹817.15 per kilogram. This drop can be attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns about China’s economic recovery, which is pivotal as China is the world’s largest consumer of copper.
Key Factors Influencing Copper Prices
- China’s Economic Data: Recent reports indicate a significant slowdown in China’s export growth in September, coupled with unexpected deceleration in imports. This has heightened fears of weak domestic demand, impacting global metal prices.
- Producer Price Deflation: The deepening of producer price deflation in China has led to increased expectations for additional stimulus measures. The specifics of these stimulus packages remain unclear, leaving investors cautious.
- Surplus in Global Copper Market: According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market recorded a surplus of 91,000 metric tons in July, a slight decrease from 113,000 tons in June. 2024 1st 7th months, the surplus rose significantly to 527,000 metric tons, compared to just 79,000 tons during the same period in 2023. This highlights a shift in the supply-demand dynamics.
- India’s Import Trends: Interestingly, China’s imports of unwrought copper increased by 15.4% in September, reaching 479,000 metric tons. This reflects a seasonal demand improvement, although it remains slightly below the 480,426 tons imported in September 2023.
Technical Analysis of Copper Prices
From a technical standpoint, copper is currently experiencing fresh selling pressure with open interest increasing by 8.21%. Here are some key levels to watch:
- Support: At ₹812.8, if prices breach this level, we could see a test of ₹808.4.
- Resistance: On the upside, resistance is observed at ₹823.8. A move above this level could push prices towards ₹830.4.
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