ShreeMetalPrices: Commodities Market Outlook – May Rise Next Week Prospects on China’s Economy Recover


Markets were more volatile In the week ending March 3. As a fresh batch of positive United states economic statistics impacted on risk appetites. And investors grew more optimistic about stimulus announcements at China’s National People’s Congress (CNPC).

After 4 weeks of gains, the Dollar index ended the week with a small dip. It had increased by 2.7 % at the end of Feb, marking the first monthly growth since Nov 2022. Throughout the week, the greenback touched a 7-week top of 105.360 as US (United states) data, along with Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ reiteration of a hawkish posture, heightened the potential of higher interest rates in the United States for a longer period of time.

Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) . And Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve . Both reiterated demands for tighter monetary policy as inflation showed indications of easing. In the figures issued for the week ending Feb 18.

The number of Individuals submitting new claims for jobless support decreased once more to 1,90,000,down 2,000 from the prior week. And remained below 200,000 for the 7th weeks in a row, indicating a continued robust labour market. In contrast to the earlier forecast of 1.6 percent, unit labour expenses increased by 3.2 % in the 4th quarter.

Gains in the Dollar index were reverse by hotter-than-expected inflation in several of the major nations in the Euro zone, better-than-expected services Purchasing Manager’s Index in the EU & UK. And dovish remarks from a Fed official.

While core inflation, which excludes energy & food,, increased from 5.3 to 5.6 percent, headline inflation in the euro area decreased to 8.5 % in Feb from 8.6 % the prior month. But was higher than the prediction of 8.3 %.

Potential Exists For Commodities When Economy Recover

The S&P Global Eurozone Services Purchasing Manager’s Index was also revised lower to 52.7 in Feb 2023. But despite this, the service sector is still expanding at its quickest rate since June 2022. New business growth that accelerated to a 9-month high & backlog development that was at its fastest pace since last June.

The major services sector of the nation had an upturn in Feb 2023. With the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Manager’s Index being revised higher to 53.5 from a preliminary 53.3. This was the fastest pace of growth in 8 months.

While expectations for Chinese demand exceeded worries about stricter US monetary policy. Crude oil prices were able to trade mostly in the positive during the week.

Although a stronger Dollar weighed on the complex, base metals saw a favourable turnaround in the last session of the week & concluded with good gains.

Meanwhile, higher than anticipated Purchasing Manager’s Index numbers & house sales figures from China fueled optimism of a resurgence in demand from the world’s largest consumer.

The manufacturing PMI increased from 50.1 in Jan to 52.6 previous month, the highest level since Apr 2012. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), while the non-manufacturing indicator rose to 56.3 from 54.4.

According to official statistics from China Real Estate Information Corp. The top 100 developers of real estate in the nation had monthly sales rise for the first time since July 2021, up 14.9 % from Feb 2022 to almost $66.5 billion.

As economic objectives are determined at China’s annual National People’s Congress, where a stimulus package is expect to be revealed on Sunday. Commodities may likely continue to rise the coming week.

China(market) has set a 5 % GDP growth target for this year in an effort to increase investor & customer confidence & foster a rapid post-pandemic recovery prior year, the locked-down economy rose by 3%.

The infrastructure & real estate industries are anticipating significant assistance from this ambitious growth objective, especially in light of the Chinese President’s recent commitment to increase domestic investment & consumption.