A clear query is going around in Beijing at midday on Monday: will China’s most recent GDP data be released as scheduled on the next day? Unexpectedly, Chinese customs did not publish their trade data just on Friday.
The statistics office has clearly followed suit by 4 PM. With the only clue being a change to a online publication schedule established a year earlier. One day later, neither a timeline for the data’s arrival nor an explanation have been provided.
This quarterly exercise’s delay. Which is typically well-choreograph and carried out, is an anomaly. It’s also Pointless.
It raises the possibility that the figures. Which indicate that the country is in poor form, are being withheld so as not to overshadow the start of the twice-decade congress of a dominant Communist Party.
Heavy security and Net-zero Covid-19 infections have been maintaine for the occasion with a significant investment of time and resources. On Monday, China’s state banks increased their intervention to protect a falling currency.
Is the China economy in trouble in 2022?
Officials have downplayed the significance of the GDP goals for this year. In addition, economists predict that 2022 could be China’s second-slowest growth year since 1976.
Investors most likely anticipated that output would increase from the second quarter’s modest 0.4% growth to the third quarter’s 3.4% rise by the September’s end.
On the front of stimulus, last month was also a welcome surprise: new bank lending almost doubled over August even as central bank directed more credit support.
In his commencement speech to the congress, President Xi Jinping has sent the grim message that politics comes first.
The government’s own efforts to improve data integrity and combat false reporting are undermine by the long-standing accusation that China manipulates official figures. In the end, poor communication or a refusal to communicate does more to undermine confidence than poor numbers.
The release of the country’s third-quarter gross domestic product data, which was initially slate for October 18, as well as other economic measures due later this week, were both postpone by China’s National Bureau of Statistics late on October 17. Their release has not yet been reschedul by the agency.