ShreeMetalPrices: China’s economic shows disappointing start to 2023


China reported on Wednesday that retail sales growth in the initial two months of this year only met forecasts, and that real estate investment decreased even more.
During the months of Jan and Feb, industrial production has increased by 2.4% rather than the 2.6% predicted by analysts.

The report show “stable rather than increasing momentum. Which also shows robust policy assistance is required to release the economic potential,” according to Zhou Hao of Guotai Junan.

The 3.5% increase in retail sales was in line with forecasts. The majority of retail categories witnessed an increase in sales, although sales of expensive goods like automobiles & domestic appliances fell.

Throughout the 1st & 2nd months of the year, compared to a year earlier, retail sales on the internet oftangible items increased by 5.3 percent.

Yet among those investments, real estate investment decreased in Jan & Feb of this year by 5.7 percent. This comes after a 10 percent decrease in real estate investment for the whole previous year. In comparison to 2022, the growth of investment in both infrastructure & manufacturing industry was slower in the 1st & 2nd months.

According to Bruce Pang, chief economist and director of research for Greater China at JLL. “There are not many bright spots in today’s report.

On the basis of official data, he did note that retail sales in Feb did not significantly differ from those in Jan. He continued by saying that given that investment growth had already accelerated recently, it was quite unexpected.

As March typically represents the year’s high in home supply. Pang anticipates a recovery in the real estate market later this year.

China’s Youth Unemployment Nearly 18%

According to the statistics agency, urban unemployment increased 0.1 percentage points from January to 5.6 percent in Feb. The report indicated that the 18.1 percent jobless rate for young people aged 16 to 24 remained continuously high.

According to Fu Linghui, spokeswoman for the statistics bureau and head of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy (DCSNE). “Because to the impact of the epidemic, China’s economic development has averaged 4.5 percent for each of the previous 3 years. And pressure on employment is very high.

According to Beijing-based BigOne Lab, an alternatives data firm with investors including S&P Global. The total number of jobs listed on key recruiting platforms in China for the 1st & 2nd month of the year decreased by 23 percent compared to the same time in 2022.

BYD was by far the most active recruiter among businesses with more than 10,000 workers, according to the data. BigOne Lab discovered that the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer increased recruiting in Jan compared to the previous month by more than 400 percent, mostly for roles in production and sales.

In order to prevent distortions due to the Lunar New Year. The CSB merged Jan & Feb results in its official data releases on Wednesday.

These numbers represent the 1st full month after China’s strict Covid regulations were lifted in early Dec.
Anecdotes and preliminary data suggest that restaurant and travel-related have recovered, but total consumer spending is still weak. Meanwhile, business surveys show a rise in industrial activity.

The outside situation is much more difficult, insufficient demand remains conspicuous & the basis for economic revival is not firm yet,” China’s NBS stated in a statement.

The bureau urged fostering “reasonable expansion of quantity” & enhancing market trust.
Last month, Chinese officials set a growth goal of about 5 percent. Which the country’s new premier Li Qiang said would not be simple to reach.

When questioned about the GDP goal on Wednesday. Fu said that if growth was too sluggish, it may reveal the issues with China’s economy and raise the stakes.

China’s economic growth slowly reviving

Fu used the term “high-quality development.” Which Beijing uses to describe a change away from simply focusing on quick expansion, to describe the shift away from setting too high of a target.

The main engine of China’s economy, exports, have seen a significant slowdown. Major trading partners’ demand has decreased as a result of rising prices and weaker development in those countries, including the United States.

On Wednesday, Fu reaffirmed that China’s price hikes have remained comparatively mild and that the nation may reach its target of about 3 percent inflation in 2023.

According to analysts, China muted inflation is a result of weak domestic demand.
Without mentioning any particular nations, Fu also talked forcefully about the pressure the international environment is putting on China’s economy.

Fu stated that certain nations may continue to tighten monetary policy in response to excessive inflation. Which will further impede global development.

“At the same time unilateralism,  geopolitics, & protectionism are growing in the globalized economy and will progressively show their pressure for the world’s economic growth.”