Aluminium prices closed 0.54% higher at 204.15, boosted by expectations of Chinese policy support afterwards a seasonal lull. The first move of the new year was made by China’s central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, who announced a 50 basis point cut to the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves beginning on February 5.
In an effort to address a number of economic issues, the central bank also intends to lower re-lending and re-discount interest rates by 25 basis points for small businesses and the rural sector, effective January 25.
Global production of primary aluminium in November amounted to 5.8613 million tonnes, as reported by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS). Compared to 5.9714 million tonnes of consumption. This meant that there was a supply shortfall of about 80,000 tonnes.
The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports that global primary aluminium output increased 2.1% year over year in December to 6.041 million tonnes. Despite a surplus of approximately 600,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of the previous year.
According to customs data, China’s notable 28% increase in imports of aluminium in 2023 is a reflection of strong demand and rising prices in the world’s largest metal consumer market.
Technically, there were indications of short-covering in the market, as seen by the 4.11% decline in open interest to 3712 and the 1.1 rupee price increase. Support for aluminium is at 203.1; a breach there could trigger a test of 202. Resistance is expect at 205; a break there could trigger a test of 205.8.