Today aluminium price saw a dip as market participants remained cautious over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s uncertain stance on a rate cut in November. On Friday, the SHFE aluminium 2411 contract fell by 1.12% to close at 19,845 yuan/mt, while LME aluminium dropped by 2.11%, closing at $2,486/mt.
Macro Factors Affecting Aluminium Prices:
The Fed’s potential rate cut has the market on edge, with equal probabilities of a 50BP and 25BP reduction. Investors are keenly awaiting U.S. employment and inflation data this week to gain further insights into future economic policies. On the domestic front, China’s unchanged LPR rate slightly dampened macro sentiment. However, aluminium’s fundamentals remain stable.
Aluminium Market Supply and Demand:
While domestic aluminium supply increased slightly, alumina prices saw upward fluctuations due to tight supply. The cost of production for aluminium remains high, adding pressure to prices. Despite this, the aluminium social inventory is in a destocking phase, driven by steady downstream consumption during the September-October peak season.
Short-Term Price Outlook:
The aluminium market is expected to see fluctuations with an upward trend in the short term. Stable fundamentals and robust supply-demand dynamics are key drivers, although potential overseas tax policies may impact domestic processing enterprises.
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